Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x329f…3f5b sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$597 (-12%) realized −$596 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%64W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$264
14 days−$357
30 days−$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$645
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +24.0% +12.2% 56% 56% +12.8%
≤30d 110 -12.3% -20.7% 45% 43% -21.0%
≤90d 144 -12.6% -21.0% 44% 43% -21.0%
all 144 -12.6% -21.0% 44% 43% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 43% -21.0%
10% -28.5% 43% -28.6%
15% -35.4% 43% -35.5%
20% -41.8% 42% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$35 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$596
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses64 / 80
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage35d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 51¢ 52¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 52¢ 50¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $46 +$57 +124%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $46 +$76 +165%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $46 −$45 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $46 −$45 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $46 +$41 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $46 +$54 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $46 +$43 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $46 +$76 +165%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $46 +$43 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $46 +$73 +158%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $46 +$90 +197%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $46 +$39 +86%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $46 +$90 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$24 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $46 +$33 +73%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $46 +$39 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $46 −$45 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $46 −$4 -10%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $46 +$33 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $45 +$16 +36%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $46 +$58 +127%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $46 +$29 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $46 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 52¢ $46 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $46 25h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $46 25h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $46 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $46 2d
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $46 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $46 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $46 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $46 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $46 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 20¢ $46 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $46 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $46 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 37¢ $46 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $46 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $46 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $46 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 38¢ $46 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $46 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $46 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 0¢ $0 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $46 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 7d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 55¢ $30 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $46 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $46 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $46 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.14 · official $89.14 (match) · 496 history records