Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

32 0x32a4…a89e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$90 (-46%) realized −$85 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-46.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+17.5%	+6.3%	100%	100%	+6.3%
≤30d	1	+17.5%	+6.3%	100%	100%	+6.3%
≤90d	2	-41.3%	-46.8%	50%	50%	-64.6%
all	2	-41.3%	-46.8%	50%	50%	-64.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.8%	50%	-64.6%
10%	-51.9%	0%	-68.0%
15%	-56.6%	0%	-71.1%
20%	-60.8%	0%	-73.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -61% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$85 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$85

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage35d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	11¢	$14	$9	−$5 (-36%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$42	+$7	+18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$89	−$85	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$47	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	41¢	$50	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	31¢	$42	3h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	67¢	$89	30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.62 · official $53.62 (match) · 27 history records