Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32a4…d9bf other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$188 (-37%) realized −$140 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$78
world 22% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$72 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage150d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $312 $233 −$79 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $14 $34 +$20 (+141%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $77 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $122 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $119 17d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $114 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.21 · official $303.21 (match) · 26 history records