Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x32a8…be9b weather 960 markets active 2d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$484 (+3%) realized +$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate82%786W / 174L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$26
14 days+$20
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$408
crypto 0% +$14
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +1.9% -7.8% 86% 16% -7.9%
≤30d 513 +6.4% -3.7% 84% 18% -5.7%
≤90d 908 +3.2% -6.7% 82% 18% -7.5%
all 960 +3.1% -6.7% 82% 17% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 17% -7.5%
10% -15.6% 8% -16.4%
15% -23.8% 6% -24.5%
20% -31.3% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses786 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)960 / 960
History coverage99d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 960 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2668 history records