Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x32a9…71a7 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,480 (+44%) realized +$1,480 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR87%break-even

Win rate87%13W / 2L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$198per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$685

7 days+$1,539

14 days+$1,655

30 days+$1,655

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +87%

net ROI/market (all)+37.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+46.9%	+32.9%	86%	86%	+35.6%
≤30d	15	+51.5%	+37.1%	87%	87%	+37.4%
≤90d	15	+51.5%	+37.1%	87%	87%	+37.4%
all	15	+51.5%	+37.1%	87%	87%	+37.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.1%	87%	+37.4%
10%	+24.0%	87%	+24.3%
15%	+12.0%	80%	+12.3%
20%	+1.0%	47%	+1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +83% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$140 vs −$82 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.09 per $1 lost it wins $11.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,480

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)87%

Wins / losses13 / 2

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage9d

Avg bet$198

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 26	$512	+$324	+63%
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S	Jun 26	$178	+$85	+48%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$451	+$200	+44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	−$87	-86%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$375	+$164	+44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$76	+$41	+55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 24	$77	−$77	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$76	+$92	+121%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$81	+$159	+197%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$187	+$121	+65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$436	+$209	+48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$226	+$211	+93%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$183	+$43	+23%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$130	+$54	+42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$100	+$116	+116%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	SELL Senegal	99¢	$836	1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	60¢	$1	7h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	60¢	$511	7h
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S	SELL Yes	100¢	$263	20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	BUY	31¢	$74	20h
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S	BUY Yes	67¢	$178	37h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	69¢	$451	43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	8¢	$14	43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	45h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	45h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$160	45h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$379	45h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$198	2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$177	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$76	2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	33¢	$81	3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$77	3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	45¢	$76	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$187	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	45¢	$102	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$436	5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$226	5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	96¢	$226	5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	77¢	$183	6d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$130	7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	45¢	$100	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records