Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ab…fe70 tech 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$303 (-38%) realized −$308 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$27
14 days−$296
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$236
economics 18% −$65
tech 16% −$36
other 8% +$84
crypto 5% −$27
finance 5% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.2% -34.1% 22% 22% +2.5%
≤30d 19 -63.6% -67.1% 11% 11% -58.4%
≤90d 19 -63.6% -67.1% 11% 11% -58.4%
all 19 -63.6% -67.1% 11% 11% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 11% -58.4%
10% -70.2% 11% -62.4%
15% -73.1% 11% -66.0%
20% -75.7% 11% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$26 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage17d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes $41 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes $41 $33 −$8 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $52 +$91 +177%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $15 −$5 -34%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $31 +$40 +126%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$10 -78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $24 −$15 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $110 −$105 -95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $129 −$60 -46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 6? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes $43 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes $21 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 57¢ $84 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes $6 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes $3 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $9 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $6 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $3 23h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes $8 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $8 23h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes $5 23h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 86¢ $16 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 49¢ $9 30h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.77 · official $165.77 (match) · 65 history records