Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32af…a7c3 weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+6%) realized +$49 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$115
other 5% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -97.9%
≤30d 16 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -97.9%
≤90d 16 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -97.9%
all 16 -96.0% -96.4% 0% 0% -97.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -96.4% 0% -97.9%
10% ← realistic here -96.7% 0% -98.1%
15% -97.0% 0% -98.3%
20% -97.3% 0% -98.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -107% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -96% · $-wt -107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$42 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 95¢ $105 $477 +$371 (+352%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $102 $3 −$99 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $24 $2 −$22 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 17? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 19 $19 −$42 -221%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $35 −$46 -132%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 18? Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 19 $33 −$25 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$23 -1459%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$9 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$60 -402%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 41¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 61¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.42 · official $483.42 (match) · 144 history records