Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32b4…7f09 world 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$906 (+4%) realized +$803 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4,216per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$11,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$767
world 47% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤30d 1 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤90d 1 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
all 1 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 0% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.9%
15% -20.4% 0% -20.4%
20% -28.2% 0% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$772 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11,076
Realized+$803
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4,216
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $6,000 $6,013 +$13 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $2,973 $3,033 +$60 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,035 +$35 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $10,105 +$772 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,773 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $2,000 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1,000 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1,004 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1,000 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $100 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1,000 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1,000 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $1,000 4d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $10,877 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $100 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 83¢ $402 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 96¢ $1,002 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 95¢ $1,002 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 98¢ $1,001 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 97¢ $1,001 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 87¢ $679 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 94¢ $2,005 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 92¢ $1,003 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 92¢ $1,003 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 83¢ $1,007 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,076.35 · official $11,076.35 (match) · 22 history records