Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
32 0x32b8…fe67 crypto 688 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$405 (+1%) realized +$410 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%203W / 699L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day93.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,343
7 days+$157
14 days+$1,748
30 days+$1,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$1,488
other 9% +$1,031
sports 6% +$167
weather 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -82.7% -84.4% 15% 6% -9.0%
≤30d 654 -46.3% -51.4% 30% 16% -7.2%
≤90d 902 -51.0% -55.7% 23% 12% -8.0%
all 902 -51.0% -55.7% 23% 12% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.7% 12% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -59.9% 6% -16.8%
15% -63.8% 3% -24.8%
20% -67.3% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$410
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses203 / 699
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)902 / 688
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day93.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $662 $657 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $668 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $632 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $242 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $231 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $153 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $122 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $111 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $87 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $87 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $68 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $64 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $702 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.66 · official $656.66 (match) · 3500 history records