Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32b8…8927 crypto 90 markets active 1d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,546 (+2%) realized +$2,405 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate72%60W / 23L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$1,505per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$19
14 days−$3,016
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3,779
other 23% −$1,522
crypto 3% +$88
politics 1% +$87
sports 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.7% +3.7% 50% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 57 -1.2% -10.6% 74% 16% -6.2%
≤90d 83 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 18% -6.9%
all 83 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 18% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 18% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 10% -15.8%
15% -27.6% 5% -23.9%
20% -34.7% 1% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,095) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$237 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized+$2,405
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses60 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)83 / 90
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1,505
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $149 $187 +$38 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $100 $165 +$65 (+65%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 95¢ $112 $154 +$42 (+38%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $79 $89 +$10 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 23¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $52 +$22 +43%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $160 −$2 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,849 −$1,830 -99%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $196 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,095 −$96 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1,814 −$33 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1,626 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,651 −$166 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $13,184 −$913 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $169 −$28 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $91 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $5,268 −$70 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$38 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $201 +$11 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $180 −$62 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5,040 +$377 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $139 −$23 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $45 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $9,912 +$746 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $896 +$48 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 58¢ $9 28h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 55¢ $18 28h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 63¢ $31 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $77 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $18 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $46 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $37 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $50 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $60 8d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $124 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $20 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $447 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $140 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $141 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.90 · official $765.90 (match) · 584 history records