Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32bb…fcbd crypto 20 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 45% -12.8%
≤30d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 45% -12.8%
≤90d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 45% -12.8%
all 20 -16.2% -24.2% 45% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 45% -12.8%
10% -31.4% 45% -21.1%
15% -38.1% 35% -28.8%
20% -44.1% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$69 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$40 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $49 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records