Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32bc…c5bf crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate83%64W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$36
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$36
world 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.0% -13.2% 88% 4% -10.9%
≤30d 77 -6.6% -15.5% 83% 16% -10.7%
≤90d 77 -6.6% -15.5% 83% 16% -10.7%
all 77 -6.6% -15.5% 83% 16% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 16% -10.7%
10% -23.6% 8% -19.2%
15% -31.0% 5% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses64 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage30d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records