Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32bf…f150 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (315 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day315.0pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% $0
other 16% $0
world 13% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 10 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover315.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day315.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 25 $489 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 3m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $31 4m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $31 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $20 8m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $25 11m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $25 11m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $25 15m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $25 15m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $19 15m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 19m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $20 25m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 25m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $20 34m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 34m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $20 38m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 38m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $20 40m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 40m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 97¢ $20 41m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 41m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 45m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 45m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.50 · official $126.50 (match) · 315 history records