Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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32 0x32bf…ec60 sports 427 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,421 (-4%) realized −$6,341 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%181W / 242L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$3,165est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$6,089
other 4% −$3,084
crypto 1% −$1,000
world 0% −$200
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -15.2% -23.3% 37% 36% -22.5%
≤30d 97 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 39% -8.0%
≤90d 423 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 41% -15.2%
all 423 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% -15.2%
10% -20.7% 37% -23.3%
15% -28.3% 33% -30.7%
20% -35.4% 29% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$340 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized−$6,341
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses181 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$3,165
Open positions4
Markets (closed)423 / 427
History coverage84d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 55¢ $600 $545 −$55 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 89¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 32¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 55¢ 4¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $101 +$46 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 +$104 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$374 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$102 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$113 +111%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$230 +57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $204 +$368 +180%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $73 −$71 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$106 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$101 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $277 −$270 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $308 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $716 −$548 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $408 +$322 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$120 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $408 +$538 +132%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $952 −$302 -32%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 −$8 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $407 +$620 +152%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,702 −$357 -21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $404 +$212 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $101 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $147 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $102 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $132 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 20h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $112 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $51 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $152 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 25h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 40h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 43h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 43h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 46h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $73 2d
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $204 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $820.00 · official $820.00 (match) · 1522 history records