Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32c0…320d crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%21W / 6L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day150.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +9.7% -0.7% 78% 41% -5.7%
≤30d 27 +9.7% -0.7% 78% 41% -5.7%
≤90d 27 +9.7% -0.7% 78% 41% -5.7%
all 27 +9.7% -0.7% 78% 41% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 41% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 30% -14.7%
15% -18.9% 11% -23.0%
20% -26.9% 11% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses21 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day150.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 81¢ 50¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.53 · official $12.53 (match) · 181 history records