Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
32 0x32c2…2055 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-14%) realized −$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$11
crypto 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -19.5% -27.1% 40% 40% -43.4%
≤90d 5 -19.5% -27.1% 40% 40% -43.4%
all 5 -19.5% -27.1% 40% 40% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 40% -43.4%
10% -34.1% 40% -48.8%
15% -40.5% 40% -53.7%
20% -46.3% 40% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $98 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.55 · official $96.55 (match) · 9 history records