Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32c3…5dc5 crypto 992 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,858 (-31%) realized −$7,858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%453W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day182.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,592
sports 0% +$14
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 705 -25.1% -32.3% 34% 33% -52.1%
≤30d 1025 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 42% -41.2%
≤90d 1025 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 42% -41.2%
all 1025 -4.4% -13.5% 44% 42% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 42% -41.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 41% -46.8%
15% -29.4% 39% -51.9%
20% -36.3% 34% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$41 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses453 / 572
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1025 / 992
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day182.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1025 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$44 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$21 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $667 −$667 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records