Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x32c5…adc9 crypto 2019 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (214 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$710 (-13%) realized −$710 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%909W / 558L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day214.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,707
sports 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (214 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1052 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 52% +11.8%
≤30d 1467 +19.7% +8.3% 62% 61% +23.6%
≤90d 1467 +19.7% +8.3% 62% 61% +23.6%
all 1467 +19.7% +8.3% 62% 61% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover214.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 61% +23.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 60% +11.8%
15% -11.5% 60% +1.0%
20% -20.2% 58% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses909 / 558
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1467 / 2019
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day214.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 50¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.49 (match) · 3500 history records