Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32c6…7eaf sports 140 markets active 2d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,615 (+14%) realized +$1,615 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate62%87W / 53L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$16
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,616
crypto 50% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.9% -25.7% 55% 6% -9.2%
≤30d 114 -6.7% -15.6% 64% 11% -7.8%
≤90d 140 +26.4% +14.4% 62% 12% -2.8%
all 140 +26.4% +14.4% 62% 12% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 12% -2.8%
10% +3.4% 9% -12.1%
15% -6.6% 6% -20.6%
20% -15.7% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1 · ×17.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.84 per $1 lost it wins $28.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses87 / 53
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage51d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $400 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $349 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $350 $0 +0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $12 −$5 -42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $428 +$21 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $12 −$10 -84%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates - Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $271 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $162 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $171 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $349 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 8? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $340 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $400 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 82¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $100 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $84 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $6 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $200 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $6 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $11 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $5 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $6 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 100¢ $100 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 50¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 787 history records