Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

32 0x32ca…38c4 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$250 (-34%) realized −$92 · open −$158

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-60.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-57.4%
≤90d	2	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-57.4%
all	2	-56.5%	-60.7%	0%	0%	-57.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-60.7%	0%	-57.4%
10%	-64.4%	0%	-61.5%
15%	-67.9%	0%	-65.2%
20%	-71.0%	0%	-68.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -53% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -57% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$49 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$378

Realized−$92

Unrealized−$158

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions6

Markets (closed)2 / 8

History coverage30d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	26¢	12¢	$390	$190	−$200 (-51%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	12¢	$96	$135	+$40 (+42%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	3¢	$10	$28	+$18 (+179%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$20	$14	−$6 (-28%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$83	−$79	-95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$100	−$18	-18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	13¢	$102	1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	10d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Thunder	2¢	$4	20d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	40¢	$83	20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	49¢	$83	21d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	38¢	$199	21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$100	22d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$98	26d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	39¢	$99	29d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.84 · official $377.84 (match) · 38 history records