Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
32 0x32cc…bb62 crypto 1452 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%632W / 815L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$1,081est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$4,243
sports 45% +$1,448
other 5% −$1,713
weather 2% −$347
world 0% −$50
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.1% -24.0% 33% 33% -38.8%
≤30d 124 -7.3% -16.2% 37% 37% -15.7%
≤90d 1312 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 43% -13.6%
all 1447 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 43% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 43% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 42% -21.6%
15% -28.6% 41% -29.1%
20% -35.6% 39% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$75 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses632 / 815
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,081
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1447 / 1452
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 37¢ 36¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 +$91 +152%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 +$49 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$109 +258%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $108 +$84 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $98 +$221 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $111 −$80 -72%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $102 +$111 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $266 −$14 -5%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 08 $178 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $111 −$111 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 08 $228 −$228 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 08 $194 −$194 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $249 −$249 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 08 $510 −$510 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 08 $650 −$650 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $258 −$231 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $121 −$44 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $58 −$40 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $72 −$63 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $38 +$35 +91%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $100 +$39 +39%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 03 $225 −$77 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 03 $95 +$92 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$23 +88%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 03 $117 +$144 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $51 −$38 -75%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 03 $307 +$812 +265%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $51 −$45 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $36 −$15 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 37¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $98 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 27¢ $49 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 35¢ $51 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 5d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $60 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 27¢ $33 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 76¢ $93 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 84¢ $151 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $48 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $42 6d
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 22¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $44 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $191 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $108 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 6d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $89 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $188 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $32 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 8¢ $31 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 27¢ $111 11d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 41¢ $102 11d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 31¢ $99 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $102 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.51 · official $197.51 (match) · 3500 history records