Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32ce…aaca other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$397 (+14%) realized +$169 · open +$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$300
sports 36% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.7% +8.3% 50% 50% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +19.7% +8.3% 50% 50% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +19.7% +8.3% 50% 50% -9.3%
all 4 +30.5% +18.0% 75% 50% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 50% +0.4%
10% +6.7% 50% -9.2%
15% -3.6% 50% -18.0%
20% -13.0% 50% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$72 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$1,566
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage556d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $586 $752 +$166 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $571 $633 +$62 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $81 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $263 −$72 -27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $109 +$73 +67%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $1,059 +$95 +9%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 21 $97 +$71 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $191 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $191 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $182 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $263 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $581 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $109 44h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 44h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 45h
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 SELL Usyk 100¢ $599 343d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Usyk 90¢ $540 343d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 SELL Usyk 86¢ $540 343d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Usyk 90¢ $14 343d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 SELL Dubois 10¢ $14 343d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Usyk 76¢ $465 345d
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 BUY Dubois 28¢ $40 350d
Will Usyk beat Fury? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 553d
Will Usyk beat Fury? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 555d
Will Usyk beat Fury? BUY Yes 57¢ $39 555d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,565.70 · official $1,565.70 (match) · 25 history records