Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x32d3…35a6 world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$72 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
sports 30% +$67
other 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 0% -7.4%
all 9 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 0% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 0% -7.4%
10% -16.3% 0% -16.2%
15% -24.4% 0% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.33 per $1 lost it wins $12.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage88d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $372 $370 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $247 +$5 +2%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $228 −$6 -2%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $484 +$41 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $483 −$1 -0%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $447 +$23 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 06 $469 +$2 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $371 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Apr 04 $99 $0 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Mar 29 $46 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $372 1h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $252 4d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $247 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $222 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $228 5d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $484 25d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $482 25d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $483 25d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 95¢ $162 47d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 95¢ $190 47d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 95¢ $95 47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $471 47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $469 47d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $371 63d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $371 63d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? SELL No 99¢ $49 80d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Panama 93¢ $46 87d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? SELL No 99¢ $49 87d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? BUY No 99¢ $99 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.00 · official $370.00 (match) · 22 history records