Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x32d6…a8f5 sports 504 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,225 (+7%) realized +$9,109 · open +$1,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%261W / 225L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$625est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$83
14 days+$322
30 days+$9,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,559
other 13% +$11,760
weather 10% −$1,971
world 1% +$818
crypto 1% +$1,089
politics 0% −$146
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -70.4% -73.2% 25% 25% -22.5%
≤30d 134 +33.0% +20.3% 55% 47% -4.3%
≤90d 486 +16.2% +5.1% 54% 41% -8.5%
all 486 +16.2% +5.1% 54% 41% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 41% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 29% -17.3%
15% -14.1% 21% -25.3%
20% -22.5% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$125 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3,219
Realized+$9,109
Unrealized+$1,116
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses261 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$625
Open positions15
Markets (closed)486 / 504
History coverage74d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? No 95¢ 100¢ $950 $996 +$46 (+5%)
APYX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 38¢ 60¢ $393 $627 +$234 (+59%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 86¢ $371 $595 +$224 (+60%)
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch? No 8¢ 32¢ $103 $388 +$285 (+277%)
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 17¢ 42¢ $86 $223 +$136 (+157%)
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 2¢ 17¢ $21 $170 +$148 (+690%)
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $27 $129 +$102 (+374%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 45¢ 44¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 43¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $31 $7 −$24 (-76%)
Concrete FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 73¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+52%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-69%)
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $27 $3 −$24 (-88%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $420 +$77 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $26 +$141 +551%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 +$21 +42%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $190 +$8 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $1,786 +$214 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $32 +$233 +736%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 +$39 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $231 −$231 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$102 +116%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $55 +$17 +32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$11 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 +$781 +1562%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Puck be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $688 −$688 -100%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $120 +$88 +74%
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 07 $50 +$399 +797%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $117 +$80 +68%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $898 +$87 +10%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.75B by June 30? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will any match last over 70 minutes at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 06 $1,109 +$336 +30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,958 +$237 +8%
Will Nisha be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 06 $432 +$68 +16%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $205 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $999 −$999 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 06 $200 +$12 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 06 $2,002 +$167 +8%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 05 $201 +$57 +28%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $101 −$61 -60%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $480 +$66 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $300 +$59 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $4,340 +$120 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 BUY No 95¢ $458 57m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 BUY No 95¢ $62 58m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 BUY No 95¢ $429 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 61¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 29¢ $51 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 1h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 33¢ $51 2d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $220 2d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $496 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 8d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $54 10d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 10d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 15¢ $26 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $58 11d
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? SELL No 99¢ $198 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 89¢ $893 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 89¢ $893 12d
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? BUY No 95¢ $71 12d
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? BUY No 94¢ $24 12d
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? BUY No 95¢ $95 12d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,219.21 · official $3,369.30 · 2521 history records