Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32d9…75ef world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1
other 21% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% −$3
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 39% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 39% 6% -9.4%
all 38 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 8% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 5% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage492d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $78 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $77 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $3 +$2 +44%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $3 −$2 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $17 $0 -0%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 05 $21 −$4 -20%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 05 $5 $0 -4%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Morehead State Mar 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $38 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $37 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $25 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $12 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $9 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $36 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $37 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records