Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32da…f236 other 39 markets active 1d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$402 (-25%) realized −$398 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$11
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$348
sports 16% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 47% -10.6%
≤30d 32 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -21.5%
≤90d 32 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -21.5%
all 37 -28.7% -35.5% 41% 41% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 41% -32.6%
10% -41.7% 35% -39.0%
15% -47.3% 32% -44.9%
20% -52.5% 22% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$398
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage110d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -8%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $161 +$32 +20%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$41 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -99%
First Round Pool A: Cuba vs. Canada Mar 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 10 $40 −$40 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 10 $99 +$39 +39%
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Mar 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $161 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $75 5d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.48 · official $21.48 (match) · 70 history records