Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32db…0d39 weather 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%179W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$12
other 6% −$16
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.6% -1.8% 52% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 82 +4.6% -5.3% 72% 21% -10.6%
≤90d 207 +2.3% -7.4% 86% 11% -9.2%
all 209 +2.3% -7.5% 86% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 7% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 6% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses179 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)209 / 222
History coverage93d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.45 · official $28.45 (match) · 412 history records