Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x32de…e0dc world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$8
other 19% +$1
sports 15% +$7
politics 7% −$1
weather 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 14% -7.7%
all 38 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -7.6%
10% -18.1% 5% -16.4%
15% -26.0% 3% -24.5%
20% -33.3% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage476d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $63 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $46 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $63 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 +$10 +30%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $28 −$3 -11%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 +12%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $22 $0 +2%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 18 $22 $0 +1%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 12? Mar 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $5 $0 -5%
Will Hakeem Jeffries applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $22 −$1 -2%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 04 $17 −$1 -6%
San José State vs. Colorado State Mar 04 $23 $0 -2%
Tennessee vs. Ole Miss Mar 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lille win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $24 $0 -1%
Akron vs. Toledo Mar 04 $14 +$10 +70%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Magic Mar 03 $15 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $44 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $14 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $4 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $18 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $5 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $41 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $20 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $25 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $21 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $45 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $45 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $22 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $24 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $42 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.83 · official $34.83 (match) · 104 history records