Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32df…cce8 sports 554 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,149 (-8%) realized −$8,172 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%326W / 215L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4,455
14 days−$4,455
30 days−$8,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7,383
sports 31% −$456
crypto 13% −$3,313
politics 8% +$1,743
weather 3% −$97
world 2% +$598
finance 1% +$298
tech 1% +$119
culture 1% +$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.2% -51.3% 25% 25% -96.7%
≤30d 34 -35.7% -41.8% 44% 26% -45.4%
≤90d 384 -10.4% -19.0% 62% 35% -16.8%
all 541 -7.0% -15.9% 60% 36% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 36% -17.3%
10% -23.9% 25% -25.2%
15% -31.3% 21% -32.4%
20% -38.0% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$191 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$8,172
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses326 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions13
Markets (closed)541 / 554
History coverage191d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $62 $66 +$5 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $39 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 80¢ 96¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+20%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $34 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 44¢ 42¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+81%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $25 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 95¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $135 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $432 −$432 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $4,027 −$4,027 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $54 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $590 −$590 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 02 $490 +$510 +104%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $134 +$64 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 02 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 02 $308 −$308 -100%
Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $175 −$175 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 02 $405 −$405 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 02 $305 −$305 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $523 −$523 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 02 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $5,373 +$3,695 +69%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $22 +$12 +56%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 28 $47 +$9 +18%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $143 +$6 +4%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 28 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $114 +$3 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $119 +$3 +3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 28 $111 +$9 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 28 $494 +$54 +11%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $975 +$518 +53%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 28 $125 −$7 -5%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 09 $889 −$237 -27%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 +$337 +165%
Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $171 −$171 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan May 09 $902 −$902 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 May 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $606 +$303 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 09 $202 +$137 +68%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $200 +$800 +400%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $662 +$485 +73%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,140 +$660 +58%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $75 +$25 +33%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $92 +$64 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $432 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,016 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $317 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $37 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 18d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $250 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.31 · official $374.31 (match) · 3164 history records