Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

32 0x32e5…0d56 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$11 (+15%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	+14.4%
≤30d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	+14.4%
≤90d	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	+14.4%
all	4	-10.4%	-18.9%	50%	50%	+14.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.9%	50%	+14.4%
10%	-26.7%	50%	+3.4%
15%	-33.8%	50%	-6.6%
20%	-40.2%	50%	-15.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$18	+$15	+81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	+$8	+78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$33	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	54¢	$18	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	45¢	$2	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.69 · official $31.69 (match) · 7 history records