Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32e5…be5b sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,776 (+10%) realized +$1,786 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%78W / 75L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$436
7 days−$367
14 days−$360
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$587
other 47% +$421
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -50.2% -54.9% 25% 25% -62.9%
≤30d 34 -24.6% -31.8% 41% 41% -16.1%
≤90d 140 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 49% -7.3%
all 153 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 50% -4.0%
10% -26.8% 45% -13.2%
15% -33.9% 37% -21.6%
20% -40.3% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$66 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1,786
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses78 / 75
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage130d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$29 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$10 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $104 +$79 +76%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $210 +$59 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $169 +$122 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $106 +$164 +155%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $105 +$56 +53%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $105 +$64 +61%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $263 +$185 +70%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $84 +$32 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $105 +$42 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $262 −$3 -1%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $84 +$72 +86%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $168 +$40 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $157 +$57 +36%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 +$116 +116%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $116 −$17 -14%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $53 +$69 +131%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $84 +$79 +93%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $141 +$73 +51%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $181 +$56 +31%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $61 +$121 +197%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $106 +$29 +27%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $121 +$48 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $66 +$109 +165%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $91 +$59 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $42 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $104 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 73¢ $105 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $213 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $25 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $53 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 32¢ $77 11d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $37 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $53 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $106 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $84 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 20d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $84 20d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $105 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $105 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $105 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $158 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.58 · official $39.58 (match) · 350 history records