Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32e5…931a politics 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$27 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%62W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$966
14 days−$666
30 days−$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$230
politics 24% −$98
weather 18% +$633
sports 12% −$810
economics 5% $0
world 3% −$124
crypto 3% −$92
culture 2% +$35
tech 1% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -54.0% -58.4% 33% 17% -61.1%
≤30d 25 -26.2% -33.2% 48% 32% -36.9%
≤90d 144 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 28% -11.7%
all 155 -8.9% -17.5% 40% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 27% -9.5%
10% -25.4% 19% -18.1%
15% -32.6% 16% -26.0%
20% -39.2% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$33 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses62 / 93
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions42
Markets (closed)155 / 196
History coverage105d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $216 $220 +$4 (+2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 74¢ 96¢ $74 $96 +$22 (+30%)
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? No 47¢ 46¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $72 $84 +$12 (+16%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $73 $69 −$4 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $62 $56 −$5 (-9%)
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $45 $50 +$6 (+13%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? No 70¢ 100¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+42%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the IN-07 House seat? No 93¢ 94¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 55¢ 55¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $20 $30 +$11 (+54%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+75%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 99¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision? No 98¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? No 90¢ 80¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+25%)
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election? No 89¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $178 +$82 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $249 −$244 -98%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Jun 15 $351 +$26 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $401 −$391 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $74 −$72 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$15 +98%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1 +$3 +220%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 04 $86 +$71 +82%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $194 +$91 +47%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $315 +$134 +42%
Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 02 $22 −$7 -31%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $118 −$118 -100%
Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 202 May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 20 $81 +$10 +12%
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $32 +$18 +59%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $39 +$102 +257%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? May 11 $133 −$11 -8%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? May 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary electi May 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 05 $61 +$5 +9%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 05 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Billie Eilish attend the Met Gala? May 05 $0 $0 +45%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? May 03 $17 +$2 +15%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 03 $46 +$2 +4%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 02 $98 −$55 -56%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? May 02 $211 +$20 +10%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th May 02 $6 −$6 -88%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 02 $16 +$2 +10%
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision? May 02 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Trump say "Social Security" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $114 +$7 +6%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 01 $48 +$10 +21%
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? May 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Apr 30 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? Apr 30 $43 −$31 -72%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%? Apr 30 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%? Apr 30 $78 +$75 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $28 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $72 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $72 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 74¢ $183 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $51 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 53¢ $77 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $178 2d
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $377 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $299 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $89 3d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $61 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 12¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 18¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy $23 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 11¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 29¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 30¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 29¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 14¢ $15 5d
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY No 64¢ $77 8d
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? BUY No 44¢ $2 8d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL No 98¢ $158 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.51 · official $1,280.47 (match) · 681 history records