Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ed…f960 sports 872 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Total PnL +$1,234,307 (+179%) realized −$156,268 · open −$5,081
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%498W / 473L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$790per market
Trades / day414.9pace
Fees−$8,249est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153,629
7 days−$156,268
14 days−$156,268
30 days−$156,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$39,961
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 971 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 48% -27.5%
≤30d 971 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 48% -27.5%
≤90d 971 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 48% -27.5%
all 971 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 48% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover414.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 48% -27.5%
10% -8.6% 43% -34.4%
15% ← realistic here -17.4% 36% -40.8%
20% -25.5% 28% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early 50.64505728968922% → late -27.06070074359165% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$41,641
Realized−$156,268
Unrealized−$5,081
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses498 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$8,249
Open positions74
Markets (closed)971 / 872
History coverage7d
Avg bet$790
Trades / day414.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ 82¢ $5,183 $9,242 +$4,059 (+78%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 60¢ 86¢ $4,553 $6,532 +$1,979 (+43%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ 84¢ $3,371 $4,836 +$1,465 (+43%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ 100¢ $2,000 $3,029 +$1,029 (+51%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 18¢ $7,422 $2,471 −$4,951 (-67%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 68¢ 81¢ $1,511 $1,805 +$294 (+19%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 59¢ 72¢ $1,202 $1,464 +$262 (+22%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) New York Liberty 50¢ 64¢ $1,038 $1,338 +$300 (+29%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Under 44¢ 88¢ $533 $1,073 +$539 (+101%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $418 $733 +$315 (+75%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty New York Liberty 86¢ 98¢ $576 $650 +$74 (+13%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Under 40¢ 100¢ $254 $628 +$374 (+147%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 73¢ 19¢ $2,048 $535 −$1,514 (-74%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Over 70¢ 46¢ $782 $508 −$274 (-35%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ 97¢ $405 $483 +$78 (+19%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 78¢ 99¢ $351 $447 +$97 (+28%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Washington Mystics 50¢ 25¢ $875 $438 −$437 (-50%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ 98¢ $288 $427 +$140 (+48%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $139 $381 +$242 (+174%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 79¢ 84¢ $358 $381 +$23 (+6%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 48¢ 28¢ $375 $217 −$158 (-42%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 62¢ 74¢ $183 $217 +$34 (+18%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 54¢ 88¢ $122 $197 +$76 (+62%)
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 61¢ 94¢ $127 $195 +$69 (+54%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Under 54¢ 76¢ $133 $187 +$54 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5 Jun 14 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $811 −$811 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +150%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +108%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +39%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +89%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +30%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +30%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +45%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +35%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +54%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +64%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5) Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +186%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +41%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +26%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +122%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +54%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +52%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +19%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +61%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +49%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +270%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +37%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-7.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +5%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $233 −$233 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $678 −$678 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Jun 14 $418 −$418 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) Jun 14 $934 −$944 -101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 3m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Athletics 26¢ $1 3m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $221 4m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 85¢ $222 4m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $866 4m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 4m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 5m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 70¢ $789 6m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 94¢ $0 7m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 8m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $27 8m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 74¢ $3 8m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 83¢ $42 10m
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $7 10m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 70¢ $25 10m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 86¢ $22 10m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 51¢ $131 12m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $160 12m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 14m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $39 14m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $924 14m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 14m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 27¢ $23 14m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 71¢ $68 15m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 15m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Athletics 72¢ $4 16m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 18m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $3 18m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 74¢ $0 18m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 74¢ $39 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,640.55 · official $41,611.14 (match) · 3500 history records