Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32f4…c885 crypto 916 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 195d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,921 (-62%) realized −$7,895 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%240W / 653L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 196d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$517
crypto 30% −$639
other 20% −$21
world 3% −$42
tech 2% +$84
culture 1% −$7
economics 0% +$100
finance 0% −$29
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -40.5% -46.2% 31% 31% -25.0%
≤30d 149 -14.3% -22.4% 30% 29% -12.1%
≤90d 376 -34.7% -41.0% 26% 24% -19.4%
all 893 -26.6% -33.6% 27% 26% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 26% -17.6%
10% -40.0% 23% -25.5%
15% -45.8% 21% -32.7%
20% -51.1% 18% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$7,895
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses240 / 653
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions22
Markets (closed)893 / 916
History coverage196d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 893 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in June? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+83%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? No 20¢ 8¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -19%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $24 +$7 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $33 +$26 +77%
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? Jun 25 $9 −$6 -62%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 +$6 +190%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$8 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$5 +45%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$10 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $144 +$86 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$7 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$14 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 16 $11 +$7 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $170 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$5 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 +$3 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 20¢ $8 7h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 22¢ $9 21h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 77¢ $31 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $59 21h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 37¢ $15 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 22h
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 22h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 68¢ $19 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.03 · official $149.85 (match) · 3500 history records