Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32f7…327f sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+7%) realized +$148 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days+$181
14 days+$181
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$299
other 7% −$27
world 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤30d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤90d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 67% +9.6%
all 51 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 47% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 47% +0.9%
10% -22.0% 45% -8.7%
15% -29.6% 41% -17.5%
20% -36.5% 37% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$30 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage257d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$15 +68%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $142 +$110 +78%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$85 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$27 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $93 +$39 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $19 +$19 +101%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $81 +$31 +39%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $45 +$65 +143%
Rockets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Pl Mar 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $45 +$93 +208%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $15 +$28 +185%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 07 $34 +$21 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 5? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Mar 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $24 −$6 -25%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 6? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fnatic win VALORANT Champions 2025? Mar 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 07 $155 +$114 +73%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $20 +$26 +132%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 05 $50 +$28 +56%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Mar 05 $36 +$25 +69%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 03 $55 +$75 +136%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 03 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 02 $35 +$52 +150%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 01 $20 +$32 +160%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 07 $3 +$1 +30%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Nov 25 $40 −$35 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $252 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $30 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $41 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $30 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $40 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 30h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $51 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $61 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $93 4d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 36¢ $31 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $112 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $122 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 71¢ $81 4d
Jazz vs. Kings SELL Kings 100¢ $34 95d
Jazz vs. Kings SELL Jazz 19¢ $6 95d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Jazz 47¢ $15 95d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Kings 58¢ $20 95d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 41¢ $45 96d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff BUY Paper Rex 25¢ $20 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.21 · official $103.21 (match) · 126 history records