Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32fd…5c8b politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$9
world 22% $0
other 13% −$10
sports 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
all 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 0% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 0% -23.8%
15% -31.1% 0% -31.1%
20% -37.9% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 80¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 53¢ 48¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-37%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 56¢ 72¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 58¢ 71¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $68 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 6h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 6h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 7h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 8h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 53¢ $14 8h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 53¢ $14 8h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $24 9h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $24 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 9h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 91¢ $47 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $24 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 92¢ $24 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 20h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 24h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 28h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 56¢ $11 31h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 31h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 31h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 31h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.43 · official $192.43 (match) · 33 history records