Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x32fd…9a30 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$355 (-3%) realized −$575 · open +$220
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$197
14 days−$337
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$118
other 31% +$10
tech 10% +$1
crypto 5% $0
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 50% +5.9%
≤30d 7 -9.4% -18.0% 86% 14% -18.7%
≤90d 16 -4.1% -13.2% 94% 6% -13.5%
all 19 -3.4% -12.6% 95% 5% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -12.8%
10% -21.0% 5% -21.1%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$533) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$535 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage106d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $567 $787 +$220 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $565 +$6 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $593 +$192 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $538 −$535 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $537 +$1 +0%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $533 +$3 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $214 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 01 $320 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, May 19 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? May 09 $530 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April May 01 $283 $0 +0%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $532 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Pacers Apr 13 $532 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $531 +$1 +0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 09 $530 +$1 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Apr 01 $530 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $529 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $528 +$1 +0%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $527 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.26 · official $787.26 (match) · 39 history records