Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x32fe…e4d2 economics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$236 (-20%) realized +$82 · open −$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +187.6% +160.2% 100% 100% +160.2%
≤30d 1 +187.6% +160.2% 100% 100% +160.2%
≤90d 2 +43.8% +30.1% 50% 50% +70.8%
all 2 +43.8% +30.1% 50% 50% +70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.1% 50% +70.8%
10% +17.6% 50% +54.5%
15% +6.3% 50% +39.5%
20% -4.1% 50% +25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$30 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$318
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage34d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $492 $448 −$44 (-9%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $302 $115 −$188 (-62%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $162 $76 −$86 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $52 +$98 +188%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $57 −$30 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 25¢ $150 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $20 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $52 29d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $72 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $23 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $23 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $1 34d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $101 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $52 34d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 34d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 34d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $130 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $52 34d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $6 34d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 34d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $155 34d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $156 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $49 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.25 · official $638.25 (match) · 24 history records