Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x32ff…7803 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$889 (-7%) realized −$894 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$731
sports 35% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -43.5% -48.8% 36% 32% -17.1%
≤30d 22 -43.5% -48.8% 36% 32% -17.1%
≤90d 22 -43.5% -48.8% 36% 32% -17.1%
all 22 -43.5% -48.8% 36% 32% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.8% 32% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -53.7% 27% -25.0%
15% -58.2% 27% -32.2%
20% -62.3% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$241 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$894
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $330 $333 +$3 (+1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $222 $224 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,048 +$572 +55%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,710 −$1,700 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $303 +$132 +43%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $456 +$387 +85%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $194 −$190 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $663 +$478 +72%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,010 +$64 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $235 +$129 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $425 +$491 +116%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $197 −$194 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $225 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $334 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $303 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $745 17h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $508 19h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,162 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $434 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 1 BUY 2¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 74¢ $720 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 45¢ $226 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $303 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,508 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 38h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $194 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 38h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $102 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 39h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 40h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,141 40h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.03 · official $557.03 (match) · 44 history records