Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3300…ead7 crypto 696 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (246 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,043 (+2%) realized +$1,141 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%626W / 291L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day246.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days+$162
14 days+$508
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$861
sports 0% −$94
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (246 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 -33.5% -39.9% 56% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 917 -21.5% -28.9% 68% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 917 -21.5% -28.9% 68% 12% -8.6%
all 917 -21.5% -28.9% 68% 12% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 12% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 3% -17.3%
15% -41.9% 1% -25.3%
20% -47.6% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$1,141
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses626 / 291
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)917 / 696
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day246.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 96¢ 99¢ $199 $206 +$7 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 80¢ 50¢ $200 $126 −$74 (-37%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-12%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 34¢ $37 $17 −$20 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 249 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $39 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $39 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $55 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $54 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 5m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $49 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $52 11m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $33 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.26 · official $428.05 (match) · 3500 history records