Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3304…dbce
sports · 197 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses12 / 185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage166d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 0 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 22 $40 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 02 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $7 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $148 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% −$7
politics 22% −$2
other 15% −$1
economics 9% −$1
culture 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 9h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 14d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $39 15d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $40 22d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $40 23d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $46 30d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 30d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 103d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 103d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 103d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 103d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $40 103d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $40 103d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 103d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 103d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $40 103d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $41 103d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 103d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 103d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $39 103d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $39 103d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $35 103d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $36 103d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 103d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 103d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 103d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 103d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $3 103d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $3 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 197 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 737 history records