Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3305…8210 crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 229d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,732 (-14%) realized −$1,715 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%80W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$252
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,531
other 5% −$83
sports 4% +$408
world 1% −$60
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% +14.1%
≤30d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% +14.1%
≤90d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 40% +14.1%
all 196 -28.1% -35.0% 41% 32% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 32% -18.9%
10% -41.2% 22% -26.6%
15% -46.9% 17% -33.7%
20% -52.1% 10% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$33 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses80 / 116
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)196 / 207
History coverage229d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 40¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 29¢ 30¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 31¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$40 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $82 +$141 +172%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$92 +226%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$57 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$32 +62%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 −$60 -58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$59 +97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 +$122 +291%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$14 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8PM ET Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6PM ET Nov 17 $5 +$15 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET Nov 16 $42 −$32 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11AM ET Nov 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9AM ET Nov 16 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8AM ET Nov 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 5AM ET Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9PM ET Nov 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET Nov 15 $194 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET Nov 15 $89 +$41 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9AM ET Nov 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET Nov 15 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4AM ET Nov 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1AM ET Nov 15 $158 −$88 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10PM ET Nov 15 $87 −$67 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9PM ET Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4PM ET Nov 14 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6PM ET Nov 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1PM ET Nov 14 $133 −$113 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10AM ET Nov 14 $65 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9AM ET Nov 14 $151 +$49 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8AM ET Nov 14 $101 −$91 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7AM ET Nov 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6AM ET Nov 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2AM ET Nov 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $36 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $51 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $82 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $44 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $41 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 20¢ $20 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.32 · official $306.32 (match) · 3500 history records