Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3308…b3de crypto 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-1%) realized −$113 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%169W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$685
sports 38% −$23
other 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.9% -25.7% 37% 37% -10.5%
≤30d 46 -39.7% -45.5% 22% 22% -39.4%
≤90d 431 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 39% -12.5%
all 431 -5.2% -14.3% 39% 39% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -12.5%
10% -22.5% 38% -20.9%
15% -30.0% 37% -28.5%
20% -36.8% 34% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses169 / 262
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions1
Markets (closed)431 / 432
History coverage76d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $32 +$14 +44%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $47 −$15 -32%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $22 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $32 +$60 +188%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $32 +$49 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $32 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +74%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$26 +132%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $20 +$33 +162%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $17 +$18 +107%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$5 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $32 −$24 -76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $17 −$16 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 05 $19 −$18 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 05 $48 −$33 -70%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $15 −$13 -84%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $62 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western May 31 $16 −$15 -97%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $39 +$11 +29%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $13 −$12 -97%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $54 −$34 -62%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner May 31 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $16 +$94 +601%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Aurora Gaming PH (BO5) - MPL Phil May 27 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $10 +$16 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 4¢ $10 24m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 61¢ $46 25m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 41¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Enjoy 12¢ $21 21h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 12¢ $5 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 7¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 95¢ $73 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 41¢ $32 23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 14¢ $22 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Flame Team 20¢ $19 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $93 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ $32 3d
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 25¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 28¢ $32 3d
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 25¢ $23 4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 30¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 22¢ $9 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 16¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 91¢ $53 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 34¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $17 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 6¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 859 history records