Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x330b…9565 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,308 (+25%) realized +$1,746 · open −$438
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$641
other 7% +$280
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.7% +14.6% 40% 40% +18.1%
≤30d 20 +26.7% +14.6% 40% 40% +18.1%
≤90d 20 +26.7% +14.6% 40% 40% +18.1%
all 20 +26.7% +14.6% 40% 40% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 40% +18.1%
10% +3.6% 40% +6.8%
15% -6.4% 40% -3.5%
20% -15.6% 40% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$128 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$1,746
Unrealized−$438
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $216 $219 +$3 (+1%)
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic Helioevaara/Patten 42¢ $355 $0 −$355 (-100%)
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Adolfo Vallejo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 45¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $99 −$11 -11%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Noskova Jun 21 $152 +$160 +105%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $388 +$413 +106%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $750 +$701 +93%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $460 −$451 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $699 −$27 -4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $174 +$377 +218%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$224 +226%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $121 −$119 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $102 +$111 +109%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $110 −$108 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $276 −$271 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 −$96 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $365 −$204 -56%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $146 +$734 +501%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $153 −$17 -11%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $150 +$152 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $220 52m
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Adolfo Vallejo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $88 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Magdalena Frech 26¢ $88 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 28¢ $99 1h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Helioevaara/Patten 38¢ $100 2h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Helioevaara/Patten 40¢ $99 2h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Helioevaara/Patten 47¢ $163 2h
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Noskova SELL Noskova 100¢ $312 2h
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Noskova BUY Noskova 48¢ $152 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $801 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 44¢ $92 4h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ $296 4h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $460 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $1,452 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 42¢ $77 6h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $92 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $581 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 61¢ $672 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $699 9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $48 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $126 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $323 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 23h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Seattle Storm 17¢ $19 23h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Seattle Storm 40¢ $102 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 100¢ $213 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 47¢ $102 25h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 30¢ $110 29h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 39¢ $110 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.26 · official $219.26 (match) · 47 history records