Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x330b…6e60 sports 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$232 (-6%) realized −$167 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%70W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$568
14 days+$529
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$60
other 12% −$2
world 7% −$10
crypto 6% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +10.0% -0.5% 30% 27% +34.2%
≤30d 162 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 29% +4.8%
≤90d 220 -13.6% -21.8% 32% 30% -8.4%
all 220 -13.6% -21.8% 32% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 30% -8.4%
10% -29.3% 30% -17.2%
15% -36.2% 29% -25.2%
20% -42.4% 27% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$14 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses70 / 150
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions6
Markets (closed)220 / 226
History coverage57d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Over 7¢ 3¢ $132 $55 −$77 (-58%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+78%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $128 +$403 +316%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$43 +170%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $61 +$105 +172%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 +$54 +653%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$25 +123%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 +$84 +1026%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 +$31 +438%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$62 +866%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +41%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$26 +128%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 0m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 1m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 13m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $46 19m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 42m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $531 42m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $41 49m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $31 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $25 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $26 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $36 5h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $166 6h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 36¢ $61 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $15 8h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.43 · official $160.43 (match) · 350 history records