Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x330f…96d3 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1 (+12%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1
other 38% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤30d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤90d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
all 4 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 50% +16.9%
10% +4.7% 50% +5.7%
15% -5.4% 50% -4.5%
20% -14.7% 50% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY 6¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $3.96 · 10 history records