Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3311…d659 weather 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$826 (+1%) realized +$883 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate81%345W / 80L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$641
14 days+$362
30 days−$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$1,078
other 6% −$405
crypto 3% −$20
sports 1% −$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +14.7% +3.7% 95% 42% +1.5%
≤30d 223 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 27% -11.7%
≤90d 425 -1.5% -10.8% 81% 24% -8.9%
all 425 -1.5% -10.8% 81% 24% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 24% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 9% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 6% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$56 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$883
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses345 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)425 / 430
History coverage77d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? No 93¢ 95¢ $470 $480 +$10 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? No 95¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? No 61¢ 44¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $152 +$55 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$24 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$27 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$19 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $221 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $252 +$45 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $411 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$44 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $401 +$27 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $303 +$73 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $203 +$77 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$21 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $51 40m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $100 56m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 19h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $48 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $71 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $29 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $35 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $86 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $31 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $29 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $43 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $75 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $79 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $207 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $19 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $100 25h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.27 · official $713.27 (match) · 2059 history records