Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

33 0x3313…49c5 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$62 (+11%) realized +$66 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-17.1%	-25.0%	52%	39%	+1.2%
≤30d	23	-17.1%	-25.0%	52%	39%	+1.2%
≤90d	23	-17.1%	-25.0%	52%	39%	+1.2%
all	23	-17.1%	-25.0%	52%	39%	+1.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	39%	+1.2%
10%	-32.2%	17%	-8.5%
15%	-38.8%	13%	-17.3%
20%	-44.8%	9%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$88	$83	−$4 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$81	+$8	+10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$147	+$48	+32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$39	−$39	-100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	−$8	-78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 23	$2	−$1	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 23	$1	+$1	+68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$21	+$26	+124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$20	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$1	+15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$22	+22%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$3	$0	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 20	$1	$0	-36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 20	$1	$0	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 20	$10	$0	+0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$14	+$2	+18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	+$1	+12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	$0	+4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$8	+$3	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$89	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	65¢	$89	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$147	16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$2	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	12¢	$2	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$36	2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$1	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$47	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$21	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	91¢	$20	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$20	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$1	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	84¢	$123	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	100¢	$3	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Up	24¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.50 · official $83.50 (match) · 57 history records