Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
33 0x3314…e163 world 10 markets active 1d ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$6
other 26% +$2
tech 21% $0
politics 9% $0
finance 8% +$3
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
all 3 -31.8% -38.3% 67% 0% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 0% -47.7%
10% -44.2% 0% -52.7%
15% -49.6% 0% -57.3%
20% -54.5% 0% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage108d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 47¢ 96¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+105%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 57¢ 85¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 97¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 14 $2 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.37 · official $28.37 (match) · 11 history records