Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
33 0x3319…977a weather 1172 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$976 (+30%) realized +$979 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%629W / 535L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$195
14 days+$193
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 +65.2% +49.5% 62% 54% +11.4%
≤30d 839 +46.0% +32.1% 57% 49% -3.5%
≤90d 1164 +39.4% +26.1% 54% 48% +6.2%
all 1164 +39.4% +26.1% 54% 48% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 48% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here +14.0% 46% -4.0%
15% +3.0% 45% -13.2%
20% -7.1% 44% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$979
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses629 / 535
Open positions43
Markets (closed)1164 / 1172
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 1164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+643%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 11? Jun 15 $4 +$8 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 8? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February Jun 15 $1 +$5 +418%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 28? Jun 15 $2 −$6 -239%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 15? Jun 15 $0 +$8 +12552%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 6? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 4? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2368%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28 Jun 15 $4 +$8 +200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 15 $2 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17? Jun 15 $3 +$11 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Mar Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 4? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 17? Jun 15 $4 +$8 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18? Jun 15 $2 +$16 +866%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 1? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 12? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 16? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 27 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.90 · official $50.13 · 3500 history records